5 June 26

Now more than 97 days since commercial shipping through the Strait of Hormuz effectively collapsed, the crisis triggered by the 2026 Iran War continues to send shockwaves well beyond petroleum market, into grocery aisles, farming fields, and food-insecure communities from the Gulf to sub-Saharan Africa.

As of June 2, analysts estimate that 99 million barrels of crude, 37 million barrels of oil products, and 279,000 tonnes of LPG remain stranded aboard 247 vessels within the strait. More than three months after conflict effectively brought commercial shipping to a standstill, the world’s most important energy chokepoint remains a shadow of its former self, with shipowners still reluctant to return despite growing talk of reopening.

But the energy shock is only the beginning.

Roughly 70% of the food consumed in Bahrain, Kuwait, Qatar, the United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia, and Iraq moves through the Strait of Hormuz. In Bahrain, the price of meat has almost doubled, while Kuwait has been forced to freeze prices on basic products and subsidize meat imports following a rush on supermarkets in the opening days of the war. Analysts at Chatham House warn that while Gulf states have taken steps to diversify suppliers and maintain emergency reserves, this can only last several months before price increases and longer lead times begin hitting markets in earnest.

The agricultural fallout extends far beyond the Gulf. Before the conflict, up to 30% of global fertilizer exports transited through the strait, along with sulfur, which is essential for phosphate fertilizer production. Fertilizer prices have risen sharply, with Middle East granular urea increasing by 19% in the first week of March alone, while Egyptian urea prices surged by 28%.

The United Nations is sounding the alarm for the world’s most vulnerable nations. The FAO’s director-general has singled out Africa and South Asia as the regions most exposed, warning that heavy dependence on Gulf fertilizers will very likely trigger a massive food security crisis with devastating consequences for the poor, and that the spring planting season cannot be delayed. Fertilizer shipments passing through the Strait of Hormuz account for roughly one-quarter of global ammonia trade and more than a third of seaborne urea, meaning even the slightest perceived risk can drive up prices, stall shipments, and cause a seismic shift in food price inflation across African markets.

Low-income, import-dependent countries, where households spend up to 50% of their income on food, are facing the sharpest and most unequal impact of the crisis.

Diplomats are racing against the clock. The reopening of the strait remains a central demand in Pakistan-mediated talks, with Iran threatening military action if the US counter-blockade does not end, while President Trump has previously threatened extensive strikes on Iranian infrastructure if shipping does not resume. The US and Iran are reportedly in the final stages of negotiating a memorandum of understanding that would commit both parties to gradually lifting their respective blockades over a 30- to 60-day interim period.

References:

https://www.energyaspects.com/resources/insights/strait-of-hormuz-oil-flow-recovery

https://gulfnews.com/amp/story/world/mena/three-months-of-paralysis-strait-of-hormuz-remains-a-ghost-route-1.500560668

https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/strait-of-hormuz-closure-not-just-an-oil-problem-by-bram-govaerts-and-sharon-burke-2026-03

https://www.trtworld.com/article/b0090c203aa0

https://www.pbs.org/newshour/show/un-official-warns-strait-of-hormuz-dispute-is-disrupting-global-food-supply

https://www.fao.org/newsroom/detail/fao-chief-economist-warns-of-severe-global-food-security-risks-from-disruption-to-strait-of-hormuz-trade-corridor/en

https://www.aljazeera.com/opinions/2026/4/25/african-governments-need-to-take-urgent-action-on-fertiliser-shortages

https://commonslibrary.parliament.uk/research-briefings/cbp-10636/

https://www.spglobal.com/energy/en/news-research/latest-news/agriculture/040626-hormuz-energy-shock-threatens-food-security-affordability-gap-for-import-dependent-countrie