May 1, 2025

The ongoing U.S.–China trade conflict flared again this week, with mounting tariffs and political rhetoric sending ripples across global markets. New economic data shows the U.S. economy shrank in Q1 of 2025, in part due to declining imports impacted by renewed tariffs[1]. Meanwhile, major American companies such as Adidas and GE Healthcare are warning of higher costs and reduced profitability due to elevated import taxes on Chinese goods[2][3].

On the Chinese side, exports to the U.S. have dropped sharply, signaling that the mutual strain is cutting deep into both nations’ manufacturing and trade sectors[4]. Retail and toy industries in the U.S. have also raised alarms, pointing out the disproportionate burden they face during peak shipping seasons[5].

Despite the pressure, former President Trump stated that continued high tariffs could lead to a “total victory” for the U.S., suggesting a tough stance moving forward[6]. Meanwhile, U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent estimated that the tariff escalation could potentially cost China between 5 to 10 million jobs if Beijing refuses to negotiate[7].

VanderCons will continue to monitor these developments to advise clients on the implications for trade policy, global supply chains, and strategic investments.

Sources
[1] https://www.theguardian.com/business/2025/apr/30/economy-gdp-q1-trump-tariffs
[2] https://www.businessinsider.com/adidas-says-tariffs-are-going-to-make-sneakers-more-expensive-2025-4
[3] https://www.marketwatch.com/story/ge-healthcare-sees-tariffs-costing-500-million-in-2025-then-much-less-next-year-00b5873b
[4] https://www.cbsnews.com/news/china-exports-to-us-drop-sharply
[5] https://www.ft.com/content/b3264803-b15f-4d82-9a29-6664474797a7
[6] https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-high-tariffs-year-from-now-would-be-total-victory-2025-4
[7] https://www.foxbusiness.com/politics/us-tariffs-could-cost-china-5-10-million-jobs-onus-beijing-bessent-says