December 23, 2025
As global markets wind down for the holiday season, contrasting economic trends continue to surface. Recent data from U.S. agencies and Chinese trade regulators highlight ongoing pressures on consumption and shifts in industrial policy, though some narratives circulating in media and social posts oversimplify the dynamics.
In the U.S., the Commerce Department and other agencies have reported mixed signals for household finances. While personal consumption expenditure (PCE) data for late 2025 have not yet been fully released, consumer price indexes suggest inflation pressures persist, and affordability concerns remain prominent amid higher import costs for goods. Recent CPI figures showed prices rising 2.7% year-over-year in November but below some forecasts, though data gaps from a prolonged government shutdown add uncertainty to this picture. Household savings rates and debt trends are key variables for 2026 forecasts, though precise figures for November personal savings are still pending final release from the Bureau of Economic Analysis. Overall, affordability pressures and consumer resilience remain focal points for economists heading into the new year.
China’s rare-earth export policy has been a focal point of global supply-chain discussions, but recent developments differ from the idea of a wholesale export ban on technology. Beijing’s Ministry of Commerce introduced expanded export controls in 2025 that require licensing for a broad set of rare-earth materials, equipment, and technology exports, especially those tied to semiconductors and advanced manufacturing, intended to safeguard core industrial capabilities and align with national-security laws. However, many of those October 2025 measures have since been suspended under a temporary agreement on critical mineral measures with U.S. regulators, with the pause lasting through late 2026 while broader controls from earlier in the year remain in place. This nuanced policy environment means that Western firms must still navigate licensing and compliance obligations, rather than facing a straightforward, outright ban on all processing technologies.
Amid these geopolitical and policy shifts, India continues to attract investment from global manufacturers. Foxconn, one of the world’s largest electronics contract manufacturers, has been expanding operations and investment plans in India across multiple years, ranging from component facilities to broader technology and AI-related projects. This expansion reflects broader strategic supply-chain diversification, although the scale and context of specific deals should be understood through company filings and investor disclosures rather than as a singular reaction to China policy.
2026 will likely feature ongoing debates over consumer capacity in the U.S. and evolving regulatory frameworks for critical minerals and technology export controls. In both cases, the reality is more calibrated and regulatory than simple “weaponization” narratives suggest.
References
https://www.wsj.com/economy/consumers/us-savings-rate-falls-november-pce-report-2025
https://www.reuters.com/technology/foxconn-expands-india-investment-karnataka-ai-servers-2025-12-23/
https://www.csis.org/analysis/weaponizing-process-chinas-new-export-controls-explained
